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The illiquidity premium only works if you’re willing to wait – and no amount of alchemy can change the nature of the loans underneath.
A snap poll of expert forecasts showed that the cash rate has likely hit the top at 4.85 per cent, but Australia is not out of the woods yet.
The pool of available capital is more limited than it was in the booms of the 1990s and 2000s because this time, firms must compete with governments for money.
The Australian dollar fell and bonds rallied after the fifth cash rate rise this year. But a split vote has traders betting the central bank is done and dusted.
The Deutsche Bank expert hopes the Reserve Bank of Australia board “will come to its own conclusion rather than rely on the public echo chamber”.
The ABS may be overstating Australia’s inflation problem – just look at cigarettes, solar energy and electric cars.
Traders have ramped up rate expectations for next week and beyond after quarterly inflation remained well above the central bank’s target.
The Reserve Bank spent a week preparing the public for a rate increase just as its Kiwi counterpart did the opposite. The credibility of both is in the balance.
As Australia eyes a cash rate of 5 per cent, the banking veteran says companies should be tapping the cheaper capital on offer in the Asian giant.
Australian investors are not discovering a fatal flaw in the sector after the collapse of Bathla Group; rather, they are confronting a test that comes with scale.
There is an almost two-in-three chance the RBA will raise rates on Melbourne Cup Day, but money markets are starting to price in even higher borrowing costs.
In the property financing market, the pendulum has well and truly swung in favour of lenders as private credit funds are in retreat. So who is going to step up?
Strategists say currency could top US73¢ by the end of year just as RBA’s Christopher Kent said Australia was now an attractive place to raise funds.
John Pearce urges debt investors to stop financing shaky AI business models but brushes off concerns of a broader tech bubble.
With stocks down across the sector, even long-time Wall Street bull Dan Ives described the sell-off as a “gut check” for the artificial intelligence boom.
Strategists say the key 10-year rate could continue to surge well above 5 per cent because of a bond glut, resurgent inflation and hawkish central banks.
BlackRock is stepping back into bonds after a six-year lapse by selling US shares just as Australian ETF flows show a net increase in bonds over equities.
The irony of persistent energy shocks is they increasingly create the conditions for their own eventual moderation.
Borrowing costs are leaping across the rich world and politicians are flirting with disaster. The places with weak growth and high debt are most at risk.
Bentham’s investment chief says credit investors can finally get paid again without disappearing into opaque private markets.
Despite Australia’s strong economic growth, much of the damage has been inflicted in the post-pandemic period as government spending spirals out of control.
The mayhem gripping the French bond market has so far been contained to Europe, but that might not always be the case as contagion takes hold.
Worried about France, hedge funds have fled the semi-government bond market as they scramble to take money off the table.
Economists say the chances of a downturn in Australia are growing, but buoyant borrowing by governments and AI giants mean the usual warnings are missing.
The Australian Financial Review’s quarterly survey shows economists believe interest rates at 15-year highs will only begin to fall in November 2027.
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